Into 2021! - what will happen next?

I hope readers have had as happy a Christmas as possible in these strange times – in a way, we are all more conscious of the need for family and friends to support each other, and perhaps that's one benefit of the crisis. As chair of the constituency Labour Party and a member of the Waverley Executive, it's a strange feeling to be writing a New Year message which is almost entirely non-political, but that reflects the times. We are collectively trying to work out what happens next. I do have criticisms of how the Government is handling it, but primarily I want to share my understanding of what's happening. COVID: latest figures.

You can follow national progress of both vaccinations and the disease itself here and the local picture here.

COVID vaccinations: latest expectations.

First the good news. The vaccination programme is continuing to roll forward, and we have a real advantage in Britain that the centralised structure of the NHS enables the authorities to know with a fair degree of certainty who we all are – our age, our level of clinical vulnerability, our pre-existing conditions. There are now vaccination sites in Haslemere, Farnham and Cranleigh, and the larger GP practices are poised to join in, while the hospitals like Royal Surrey have been vaccinating in-patients and staff for over two weeks. My understanding (based on information from another area – but I think each area will be handled similarly) is that every site is this week receiving one box of 975 doses of the Pfizer vaccine this week and one 75-dose box designed for taking to care homes. The first 400 doses of the Astra-Zeneca vaccine are expected later this week. These doses are all being used according to the priority list here. If you are in a care home or a front-line health or care worker or in the 80+ group, I'd think that you can expect to get your first vaccination by the end of this month. The advice remains to wait to be invited – there is no benefit to anyone in us all bombarding the centres for information. An exception would be if you had reason to think that no GP practice or care home knows about someone for some reason – Waverley is trying to make sure that people with no fixed address are contacted. The current plan is to vaccinate as many people as possible once and delay the second booster vaccination for some weeks so as to prioritise giving the widest possible protection. COVID cases: latest outlook.

The figures for number of cases locally remain very alarming – there is a jump from last week in the Zoe app estimate for Waverley of 255 active cases (to 821) at the time of writing, and the further increase expected from what socialising did take place last week is still to work its way through.

Extreme caution in meeting anyone outside our households is still advisable – not just because it's the rules but because we're otherwise putting ourselves and those we meet at risk of serious illness (at any age) or death. This won't last indefinitely but the next two months in particular look critical while the vaccinations are rolled out for the most vulnerable. I suspect we will stay in Tier 4 until Easter at least.

Some COVID criticisms.

I don't underestimate the challenge that the Government and governments everywhere are facing. But there are some things that need to change: Don't treat us like children.

We need full transparency as to what is happening, updated every week, without facile 'encouragement' from the Prime Minister, who has repeatedly said that the pandemic would be under control soon – by last Easter, then last summer, then Christmas, now next Easter.

If we understand the position clearly we are mostly responsible adults and will deal with the inconvenience, the risk and even the fear. We will indeed get through this together. But we don't need our national leader cracking witticisms and telling us that it will all be jolly good any time soon. Just tell us the facts and what the scientists say we need to do.

If a change of course is needed, explain why.

When the facts change, the policies may need to change, but we need to understand the process. Numerous 'Nightingale' emergency hospitals were built, but then not staffed. A couple of weeks ago we were told that most were being dismantled because there wasn't enough staff for them. OK, seems to have been a mistake, but mistakes happen. But last week we were told that the London one is being activated to handle the overflow of patients from overloaded hospitals. Are the others still being dismantled? Won't there be similar hospital overloads elsewhere? What is the plan? Enforce restrictions properly.

Most people are trying to follow the rules as well as they can, but it's demoralising to see pictures of huge crowds and hear of groups of people clustering for social gatherings. The police have in some places been wary of breaking up large gatherings and issuing fines, and practice has varied from one area to another.

I'm sorry if this sounds authoritarian, but we need to stop messing about: if there is a serious breach of the regulations that we are all trying to follow, then everyone involved should get substantial spot fines.

Listen to the vaccine manufacturers.

I do see the case for having the maximum number of first vaccinations even when this means delaying the second one – but note that the manufacturers don't give any guarantees of full effectiveness until one's had the second dose too, so these shouldn't be delayed indefinitely. They know their own products and we should listen to them. There is in any case no reasonable argument for 'mix and match' second doses – the Pfizer and Astro-Zenica vaccines work quite differently, and it is unscientific to try to boost one with the other. Non-COVID policies – is anything else happening?

The Brexit agreement, unsatisfactory though most of us think it, was allowed to pass with little opposition because of the sheer horror of a 'no deal' outcome. Labour is giving priority in the coming months to the two dominant crises – keeping the NHS from being overwhelmed, and helping people in difficulty as we work our way through the pandemic: beyond that, we need to focus on policies to keep the economy stable.

Many councils are imposing maximum council rent increases (inflation +1%) in order to pursue long-term strategies of improving the housing stock. Labour has argued strenuously against this in Waverley, since we need to at least recognise that many people are facing a real financial crisis, and I hope that the council will decide to stop short of the maximum this year.

In the same way, Labour is arguing nationally for a focus on the families and individuals most affected by the crisis. Many of us are managing to work and earn normally – I work from home as head of the UK arm of a charity without much difficulty. We should be willing to have a total focus on those who are suffering, from the obvious people under extreme strain like NHS staff to less obvious cases like pub-keepers and taxi-drivers who are often not getting the targeted Government help that they need.

I do think that the situation will improve during 2021, and we may see a decent economic recovery later in the year when restrictions ease and many people are able to spend more again. But we need to be careful now and we need our Government to be responsible – seriously, following the best scientific advice and working for us all in reality –not just rhetoric.

I'm not expecting Keir Starmer or Labour to offer revolutionary change in the coming months. What we offer is seriousness and focus on people at risk. It's what we all need.

Nick Palmer is Chair of SW Surrey Labour. You can sign up for his regular updates by writing to him at [email protected]